Postgame Analysis

Turns out it was a gritty game, and Boise State did indeed have a hard time holding onto the football (three turnovers in the 2nd half). But what we didn't anticipate was Oregon's utter inability to move the ball or take advantage of the turnovers.

Boise State played its typical, balanced game, which allowed them to chew up a ridiculous amount of clock in the first half. This almost certainly contributed to Oregon's offensive drought, as they were never really able to get into rhythm–something that's critical for spread-option teams. It also probably contributed to Boise State's offensive success, as the Oregon's defense was out on the field for nearly 25 of the first 30 minutes of the game. In our simulation, it was Oregon's pressure defense that contributed to so many of Boise State's turnovers. Thursday night, Kellen Moore looked generally comfortable in and out of the pocket, and the Boise State players always looked about one step ahead of the tiring Oregon defense.

In our simulation, Oregon seemed to have the most success when Masoli scrambled out of the pocket, which distracted the defense and let receivers find open space. In real life, Masoli was usually scrambling for a loss, or handing off the ball to LaGarrette Blount, who was busy racking up more punches than positive yards.



So our simulation was spot-on in some areas, but way off in others. There was definitely a lot of first-game rust in Thursday night's game, and there was a lot of boneheaded playcalling from Chip Kelly as well, who seems to be in way over his head at this point.

Boise State needs to cut down on mistakes, but generally keep doing what it's doing. Like it or not, they're carrying the BCS-Buster banner this season until someone else takes them down. Oregon needs to get back to what made it successful at the end of 2008: let Masoli loose. Slavish devotion to the option run isn't going to work when your top RB is likely sitting out a few games... or when you're on your own 2-yard line, for crying out loud.